GoTo Gojek Tokopedia is facing a new challenge in Indonesia's capital market after MSCI announced that the company will be removed from its Indonesia index at the end of August 2026. The decision comes at a notable moment for GoTo, which has been making meaningful progress in its financial performance and recently reported its second consecutive quarterly net profit.

The GoTo MSCI removal is therefore creating a contrast between the company's improving business fundamentals and growing concerns about the tradability of its shares. GoTo has argued that MSCI's decision is technical and linked to market liquidity rather than the underlying performance of its businesses. For investors, however, the development raises questions about market perception, foreign investor participation, and the future trajectory of GOTO shares.

MSCI Removes GoTo Over Liquidity Concerns

MSCI announced that GoTo will be removed from its Indonesia index following its August 2026 index review. The decision follows an earlier warning in May, when MSCI froze changes involving GOTO after the stock had traded at the Indonesia Stock Exchange's minimum price of Rp50 per share.

At the time, MSCI said the situation created potential index replicability problems because of very low liquidity. The index provider subsequently said it would reassess GoTo's liquidity during the August review and could delete the stock if it failed to satisfy the relevant liquidity requirements. That condition has now materialized.

The decision is particularly significant because MSCI indexes are widely followed by international institutional investors and investment products. When a stock is removed from a major benchmark, funds that seek to replicate the relevant index may need to adjust their holdings. That can create additional selling pressure, although the actual impact depends on portfolio structures and market conditions.

Reuters reported that GoTo's market capitalization has fallen sharply from about $29 billion at its peak to roughly $3.2 billion, while its shares have remained at Rp50 since mid-May. This prolonged period at the exchange's minimum trading price has become central to the liquidity concerns that triggered MSCI's action.

GoTo Says The Decision Does Not Reflect Its Business Performance

For GoTo, the GoTo MSCI removal does not necessarily tell the same story as the company's operating results.

In its response to the decision, GoTo emphasized that the MSCI action was based on technical trading criteria. The company pointed specifically to the Rp50 floor price and limited trading volumes, arguing that the decision is not a consequence of weak business performance. GoTo also said it will remain in active dialogue with MSCI because index decisions are reviewed periodically.

That distinction matters because GoTo has spent the past year working to strengthen its financial profile. The company has shifted its focus toward profitability, cost discipline, ecosystem integration, and higher-quality growth. Those efforts have started to show up in its reported numbers.

GoTo's latest results provide a clear example. In the second quarter of 2026, the company recorded net profit of Rp252 billion, following a Rp171 billion net profit in the first quarter. That marked two consecutive quarters of profitability, an important milestone for a company that had spent years prioritizing expansion and ecosystem scale.

Second Quarter Results Show Stronger Operating Momentum

GoTo's second quarter performance was supported by broad improvements across its business.

Net revenue increased 31% year on year to Rp5.7 trillion, while core gross transaction value surged 83% to Rp164 trillion. Annual transacting users also increased 19% year on year to 71 million, indicating that engagement across the ecosystem continued to expand alongside the company's profitability improvements.

Adjusted EBITDA grew 137% year on year to more than Rp1 trillion for the quarter, marking the first time the figure exceeded that level. GoTo also maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of Rp3.2 trillion to Rp3.4 trillion.

The company's financial technology business was particularly important to the improved outlook. GoTo raised its full-year performance guidance for its fintech unit to Rp1.7 trillion to Rp1.8 trillion, up from the previous range of Rp1.4 trillion to Rp1.5 trillion. By comparison, the company lowered its On-Demand Services guidance to Rp1.4 trillion to Rp1.5 trillion from Rp1.7 trillion to Rp1.8 trillion, partly reflecting limits on GoRide commission rates.

These figures suggest that the company's financial improvement is not simply the result of a temporary reduction in expenses. Growth in transaction value, revenue, users, and adjusted EBITDA points to a broader improvement in operating efficiency and monetization.

That makes the GoTo MSCI removal a more complicated story than a conventional negative corporate development. The company's market-related challenges are occurring at the same time as its operating metrics are moving in a more positive direction.

Why Liquidity Has Become Such A Critical Issue

The key issue behind MSCI's decision is not whether GoTo is profitable. It is whether GOTO shares can be traded in sufficient size for investors seeking to replicate MSCI indexes.

Index providers rely on liquidity criteria to ensure that securities included in benchmarks can be bought and sold efficiently. A stock that remains at the minimum allowable price while trading activity declines can become difficult for large institutional investors to transact without significantly affecting the price.

MSCI's May announcement explicitly cited potential index replicability problems arising from GOTO's very low liquidity. The policy covered changes to the number of shares, foreign inclusion factors, domestic inclusion factors, constraint factors, and potential additions or deletions from relevant MSCI indexes.

The situation also illustrates how market structure can become as important as corporate fundamentals for a listed company. Even when an issuer is improving its revenue and profitability, a stock can still face index-related pressure if its trading characteristics fall outside benchmark requirements.

GoTo's experience is not isolated. FTSE Russell had already removed GoTo from its global equity index series mid-cap index in June after the company was moved to the Indonesian Stock Exchange's development board, which does not satisfy FTSE Russell's eligibility requirements for that index.

For investors, the combination of index exclusions and subdued trading activity may amplify concerns about GOTO's market liquidity, even as the company's underlying operations improve.

What The MSCI Decision Could Mean For Investors

The market impact of the GoTo MSCI removal will likely depend on several factors.

One is the amount of GOTO stock held by passive or benchmark-oriented investment vehicles. If funds tracking affected MSCI indexes need to reduce their positions, selling activity could intensify around the implementation date.

Another consideration is investor sentiment. Index membership can contribute to a company's visibility among global institutional investors. Losing that status does not automatically make a business less valuable, but it can reduce exposure to funds whose mandates are linked to specific benchmarks.

The timing is also important. GoTo has recently demonstrated stronger profitability, but the share price remains constrained by the Rp50 minimum. This creates a disconnect between improving earnings and weak market trading conditions.

The company's approved share buyback program could become another factor for investors to monitor. GoTo shareholders approved a renewed share buyback of up to Rp3.5 trillion for the 2026 to 2027 period as part of the company's capital management strategy.

A buyback can support shareholder value under the right circumstances, but its ability to materially improve liquidity or change market sentiment will depend on execution, trading conditions, and broader investor demand.

GoTo's Profitability Story Is Becoming More Important

The most important development for GoTo may ultimately be whether it can sustain the operational progress achieved in the first half of 2026.

The company delivered its first-ever quarterly net profit in the first quarter, reaching Rp171 billion. At the same time, adjusted EBITDA climbed 131% year on year to Rp907 billion, while core GTV rose 65% to Rp138 trillion. These figures established a stronger financial foundation before the second quarter delivered another profit.

The latest quarter strengthened that trend. With two consecutive quarters of net profit and adjusted EBITDA exceeding Rp1 trillion in the second quarter, GoTo is increasingly presenting itself as a company moving from scale-driven expansion toward a more disciplined and financially sustainable model.

This shift matters because long-term equity value is ultimately tied to the company's ability to generate sustainable earnings and cash flow. Index inclusion can influence investor access and liquidity, but it does not by itself determine the quality of a company's operating performance.

GoTo therefore faces two separate challenges. The first is financial and operational: maintaining growth while protecting margins and managing regulatory and competitive pressures. The second is market-related: restoring sufficient liquidity and investor confidence in GOTO shares.

A Setback For Market Access, Not Necessarily Business Fundamentals

The GoTo MSCI removal represents a setback for the company's position in global equity benchmarks, but it should not be interpreted automatically as evidence that GoTo's business is deteriorating.

MSCI's own process points to liquidity as the central issue. GoTo's latest financial results, meanwhile, show stronger revenue growth, rising transaction volumes, higher EBITDA, and consecutive quarterly profits. The two developments can coexist because index eligibility and operating performance measure fundamentally different aspects of a listed company.

For GoTo, the next phase will be about converting operational improvements into stronger market confidence. Sustained profitability, healthier trading activity, effective capital management, and continued growth in its fintech and on-demand businesses could help narrow the gap between its business performance and its stock market profile.

For investors watching Indonesia's technology sector, the case also offers a broader lesson. A company can make meaningful progress operationally while still facing challenges in the capital markets. In GoTo's case, the immediate problem is liquidity. The longer-term question is whether improving financial performance can eventually translate into better trading dynamics and stronger investor demand.

The outcome will take time to assess, but the contrast is already clear. GoTo is reporting some of the strongest financial results in its post-listing history while simultaneously dealing with the consequences of weak stock liquidity. The GoTo MSCI removal therefore marks an important moment for the company, not because it erases the progress made in its core businesses, but because it underscores how much work remains to rebuild confidence in the public market.