Apple is expected to ship around 243 million iPhone units in 2025, surpassing Samsung’s 235 million shipments for the first time in 14 years (27/11). Counterpoint Research reported that Apple is likely to hold a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, while Samsung’s share will be 18.7%.

Shipments measure the number of devices sent to retail channels, providing an insight into demand and expected sales rather than actual consumer purchases.

iPhone 17 Series Fuels Strong Holiday Sales

Apple’s iPhone 17 series, launched in September, is the main driver behind its shipment growth. In the U.S., sales during the first four weeks after launch, including the iPhone Air, were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e. In China, sales for the same period rose 18% compared to the previous generation.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” said Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang.

Apple’s Market Advantage and Consumer Upgrade Cycle

Counterpoint Research predicts Apple will remain the leading smartphone vendor through 2029. Between 2023 and mid-2025, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold, forming a substantial base of potential upgraders.

Apple also benefited from a lower-than-expected impact from tariffs due to the U.S.-China trade truce. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar and a resilient economic outlook have strengthened consumer confidence, supporting shipment growth.

“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang added.

Samsung Faces Challenges in the Low-to-Mid Tier Market

Counterpoint Research highlighted that Samsung could face obstacles in the low-to-mid tier smartphone segment from Chinese competitors, potentially affecting its ability to reclaim the top position in global shipments.

Apple’s Strategic Plans for Continued Growth

Apple is expected to launch the entry-level iPhone 17e next year, along with a foldable smartphone. The company also plans major improvements to Siri and a significant iPhone design revamp in 2027.

“By expanding its lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing ‘e’ series, and potential adjustments to the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioning itself to capture rising demand from aspirational consumers, particularly in emerging markets,” Counterpoint Research said.

Apple’s large installed base, device compatibility, and the renewal of older models are expected to help it maintain a lead over other smartphone makers through the end of the decade.

PHOTO: MACRUMORS

This article was created with AI assistance.