Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) has updated the number of victims from the floods and landslides in Sumatra.

As of Sunday (7/12), the official data confirms 940 people have died.

The update was based on the emergency response dashboard covering Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra at 17:00 WIB.

Authorities also reported that 276 people remain missing, while around 5,000 individuals have suffered injuries across three provinces.

The disaster has caused large-scale destruction, including damage to 147,000 homes and disruption across 52 affected districts and cities.

BNPB noted the highest death toll in Agam, West Sumatra, with 172 fatalities, while North Aceh recorded the highest displaced population with 304,000 evacuees.

Evacuations and material clearance are still ongoing. Several access roads in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra remain cut off. Power and communication networks in multiple disaster areas have not fully recovered.

Government Estimates Trillions Required for Regional Recovery

BNPB Head Suharyanto stated that the financial needs for rehabilitation and reconstruction are substantial and still developing.

He said:

“Earlier, from the Minister of Public Works, specifically for Aceh, recovery to its original condition requires a budget of Rp 25.41 trillion.”

For North Sumatra, the government estimates the recovery cost at approximately Rp 12.8 trillion.

Suharyanto added:

“We have coordinated with the Ministry of Public Works to restore conditions to their previous state. This rehabilitation and reconstruction requires a budget of around Rp 12.88 trillion.”

In West Sumatra, early calculations indicate recovery needs of Rp 13.52 trillion.

He stated:

“We report that for West Sumatra, the initial calculation from the Ministry of Public Works to restore the area to before the disaster or better requires a budget of Rp 13.52 trillion.”

Projected Economic Impact and GDP Pressure

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk estimated the disaster may cause an economic loss of around Rp 32.6 trillion, equal to approximately 0.08%–0.12% of Indonesia’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Chief Economist Andry Asmoro explained:

“If we look at the impact of floods in Sumatra on GDP, the estimate is between minus 0.08 points to 0.12% points.”

According to internal calculations, the three affected provinces contributed 7.8% of national GDP during the first three quarters of the year.

The impact estimate may continue to shift depending on national economic performance and the speed of disaster recovery.

Independent Assessment Shows Higher Loss Projection

A separate assessment by the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) projected potential economic losses reaching Rp 68.67 trillion.

The estimation includes five categories of damages, such as loss of housing, agricultural impacts, road repairs, and income loss.

Celios Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira noted that national economic growth for the fourth quarter may slow to 5.03%, below the government target.

He stated:

“With the Sumatra flood disaster, growth in the fourth quarter is projected at 5.03%. Although there is seasonal momentum, the disaster has reduced logistics, industry, and community income.”

Material losses of Rp 2.2 trillion were recorded across three key sectors in the three severely affected provinces: food crop agriculture, construction, and retail trade.

Celios highlighted severe impacts on logistics and consumption due to disrupted transportation lines and loss of income.

Policy Recommendation: Licensing Restrictions for Mining and Palm Oil

The organization’s analysis emphasized that the scale of disaster losses surpasses state revenue from the mining and palm oil sectors.

The report stated that economic losses in Aceh alone—Rp 2.04 trillion—were higher than provincial mining and palm oil revenue.

The statement read:

“A moratorium on new mining permits, including expansion, and a full evaluation of all companies holding permits is required to prevent recurring disasters.”

It continued:

“For palm oil, a moratorium on plantation permits is the final solution.”

PHOTO: ANTARA/FANDI YOGARI SAPUTRA/SONI NAMURA/GRACIA SIMANJUNTAK

This article was created with AI assistance.

This article is a summary of two original articles. The full versions can be read at the following links:

https://news.detik.com/berita/d-8247891/korban-meninggal-bencana-sumatera-tambah-jadi-940-orang-276-hilang

https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2025/12/08/07464911/biaya-pemulihan-di-sumatera-diperkirakan-rp-5182-triliun-ini-rinciannya?utm_source=Various&utm_medium=Referral&utm_campaign=Top_Desktop

https://celios.co.id/dampak-kerugian-ekonomi-bencana-banjir-sumatera/

https://www.bloombergtechnoz.com/detail-news/92359/bank-mandiri-proyeksi-bencana-sumatra-gerus-pdb-0-12-q4-2025