Retailers across Indonesia anticipate a rise in consumer spending for June 2025, according to the latest Retail Sales Survey.

The Real Sales Index (RSI) is projected to climb 2.0% year-on-year, reaching 233.7.

The forecasted boost is supported primarily by stronger sales in Automotive Fuel, Spare Parts and Accessories, and Clothing.

Retailers also expect monthly growth to improve by 0.5%, driven by multiple product groups, including Information and Communication Equipment and Cultural and Recreational Goods.

Real Sales Index Projected to Rise 2.0% YoY in June 2025

The 2.0% annual growth rate in June continues a recovery trend, following the 1.9% year-on-year increase recorded in May 2025.

The improved performance reflects rising demand across several key sectors, marking a positive trajectory for domestic consumption.

Retailers point to a convergence of favorable factors, including public holidays and mid-year promotions, as key contributors to June’s retail momentum.

May 2025 Sales Rebound After April Contraction

In May 2025, retail sales rebounded from previous weakness. The RSI rose to 232.4, showing a 1.9% increase year-on-year after experiencing a 0.3% contraction in April.

Food, Beverages, and Tobacco, alongside Cultural and Recreational Goods, were among the top contributors.

On a month-to-month basis, May saw a 1.3% decline in sales. However, this was a substantial improvement compared to April's sharper 5.1% contraction.

Analysts attributed the milder decline to sustained consumption during national collective leave days tied to Vesak and the Ascension of Jesus Christ.

Seasonal Trends and Eid-ul-Adha Fuel Monthly Growth Expectations

Respondents expect seasonal events to continue supporting sales into June. School holidays, the Eid-ul-Adha religious celebration, and mid-season promotional events are forecasted to lift demand for several retail categories.

Cultural and Recreational Goods, along with Automotive Fuel, are expected to see significant month-on-month gains.

Retailers anticipate that the holiday season will stimulate discretionary and non-essential spending.

Price Expectations Signal Temporary Inflation Easing by August

Retailers foresee a short-term easing in price pressures over the next quarter.

The Price Expectations Index (PEI) for August 2025 is forecast to decline to 139.6 from 141.9 in the previous survey.

However, this moderation appears temporary. By November 2025, the PEI is expected to rise again to 151.3, up from 144.5, indicating a renewed uptick in anticipated inflation as year-end approaches.

PHOTO: UNSPLASH

This article was created with AI assistance.