Bank Indonesia (BI) predicts that retail sales will continue to grow in February 2025, as reflected in the Real Sales Index (RSI), which is expected to reach 213.2. This marks a month-on-month (mtm) increase of 0.8%, supported by rising consumer demand ahead of Ramadan and the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) of Eid al-Fitr.

The growth is primarily driven by stronger sales in the Information and Communication Equipment group, the Clothing sub-group, and the Motor Vehicle Fuel group. These categories are forecast to experience higher sales as consumers prepare for the religious celebrations.

However, on a year-on-year (yoy) basis, retail sales in February 2025 are expected to contract by 0.5%. This decline is attributed to lower sales in the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco group, despite gains in other categories such as Information and Communication Equipment, Clothing, and Motor Vehicle Fuel.

In January 2025, the RSI recorded a value of 211.5, reflecting a 4.7% mtm contraction. This followed a 5.9% mtm growth in December 2024, a decline that BI links to the normalization of consumer demand after the Christmas and New Year holidays. Most product categories experienced a drop in sales, except for the Spare Parts and Accessories group.

On an annual basis, retail sales in January 2025 grew by 0.5% YoY, which is lower than the 1.8% YoY increase observed in December 2024. The annual growth was supported by strong sales in spare parts and accessories, along with cultural and recreational goods.

Regarding inflation expectations, BI forecasts a decrease in price pressures for April 2025 but anticipates a rise for July 2025. The General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for April 2025 is projected at 159.6, down from 179.0 in the previous period. This drop is linked to price normalization following Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr.

Conversely, BI expects the IEH for July 2025 to climb to 155.4, up from 152.3 in the prior period. The central bank attributes this increase to projected higher demand during the peak school holiday season.

PHOTO: ANTARA/M IBNU GHAZA

This article was created with AI assistance.