Retailers are projecting a notable increase in sales for October 2025. The latest Retail Sales Survey indicates that the Real Sales Index (RSI) is expected to grow by 4.3% year-on-year, up from 3.7% the previous month.

Real Sales Index Shows Accelerating Growth

The upward momentum in the RSI reflects stronger consumer demand across multiple sectors. Analysts note that this acceleration signals a positive outlook for the retail market heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Key Commodity Groups Driving Retail Growth

The survey highlights Food, Beverages and Tobacco, Cultural and Recreational Goods, and Other Household Equipment as the main contributors to faster retail sales growth. These categories are benefiting from higher consumer spending ahead of festive periods.

Monthly Retail Trends and Seasonal Effects

On a month-to-month basis, retailers anticipate a 0.6% increase in October sales. The forecast reflects a broad-based rise in demand, boosted by the seasonal shopping surge leading up to Christmas. In September, however, retail sales contracted by 2.4% monthly, largely due to declining Clothing sales.

Price Expectations and Inflation Outlook

Retailers also foresee rising inflationary pressures in the near term. The Price Expectations Index (PEI) is projected to reach 157.2 in December 2025 and 172.5 by March 2026, up from previous readings of 134.6 and 169.2. Higher seasonal demand during Christmas 2025 and Eid-ul-Fitr 2026 is expected to drive this inflation.

PHOTO: FREEPIK

This article was created with AI assistance.