Vietnam’s Declining Corn Production: An Overview

Vietnam's corn production is experiencing a significant decline, a trend that is raising concerns within the agricultural sector. According to the latest reports, production is expected to fall to approximately 3.65 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, down from 3.76 million tonnes in the previous year. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including rising imports, shifting agricultural practices, and increasing feed demand.

In recent years, the Vietnamese corn market has faced challenges from international competition. As local production struggles to keep pace, imports have surged. It is projected that Vietnam will import about 11 million tonnes of corn in 2024-25, an increase from 10 million tonnes in the prior year. Brazil has emerged as the dominant supplier, capturing 44% of the market, followed closely by Argentina and India. This reliance on imports highlights the uncompetitiveness of domestic corn production in relation to global prices and yields.

Despite the downturn in production, corn consumption in Vietnam continues to rise. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports that total corn consumption is forecasted to reach 14.1 million tonnes for the 2024-25 marketing year. Of this, approximately 12.7 million tonnes are expected to be used for feed, reflecting increased demand from the livestock and aquaculture sectors. The growing feed demand is partly due to a recovery in aquaculture following a dip in 2023, which had been exacerbated by lower demand from European and American markets.

The increase in feed demand is projected to elevate total feed needs to 27 million tonnes by 2025. Notably, about 75% of feed ingredients consumed in Vietnam are imported, making the country highly sensitive to fluctuations in global grain prices. This heavy dependence on imports further complicates the outlook for local corn farmers.

The government’s agricultural policies also play a critical role in the evolving landscape of Vietnam’s corn production. While favorable weather conditions have positively influenced other crops, the government has no immediate plans to expand the corn production area. This stagnation, coupled with competition from imported corn, poses a significant threat to the domestic corn industry.

In conclusion, while Vietnam's corn consumption is on the rise, the decline in domestic production presents a complex challenge. Farmers and policymakers must address these issues through innovative agricultural practices and strategies to improve productivity and competitiveness. The future of Vietnam's corn sector hinges on navigating these challenges effectively, ensuring food security, and supporting the livelihoods of local farmers.