PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia sees potential in gold-related stocks as short-term trading options, supported by rising global gold prices.

Farras Farhan, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset, stated that global gold prices may continue to strengthen in the near term due to persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.

“We remain optimistic that gold prices can rise to US$3,500 per troy ounce in the short term, within one to three months, because global uncertainty remains high,” he said during Mirae Asset’s Media Day: June 2025, held Thursday (12/6).

The global gold price closed at around US$3,340 per troy ounce as of the previous day, marking a more than 27% increase from the end of 2024, when it stood at approximately US$2,620 per troy ounce.

Anticipated Seasonal and Policy Events Seen as Catalysts

Farras noted that the projected average gold price for the year is US$3,100 per troy ounce, while the year-to-date average remains below US$3,000.

He also pointed to several events that may influence prices in the coming months: “Next month marks the 90-day suspension period of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. In addition, gold demand is expected to rise ahead of Diwali celebrations in India this October, which usually supports global gold prices.”

At the same time, Farras cautioned that prices may weaken toward the end of the year due to increased supply from Australia and reduced global demand.

Macroeconomic Risks Continue to Influence Gold Market Sentiment

Rully Arya Wisnubroto, Head of Research & Chief Economist at Mirae Asset, explained that global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks have been the primary drivers of gold price movement since the beginning of 2025.

“As a safe haven instrument, gold prices tend to increase when the global situation is filled with uncertainty or negative sentiment,” said Rully.

On the issue of trade tariffs, he noted that the market will likely react only if policy outcomes differ substantially from expectations.

“If the U.S. decision on tariffs for imports from China ends up being far from the proposed 30%, and U.S. import tariffs from China fall below the expected 10%, then we might see a change in the economic outlook and financial markets. Global investors are currently anticipating a 30%-10% tariff framework.”

Foreign Fund Outflows Reflect Cautious Market Mood

Rully added that the recent cooling of trade war tensions indicated by the weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and commodity prices has coincided with net foreign selling in Indonesia’s stock market.

He observed that the first week of June saw Rp 4.7 trillion in foreign capital outflows, primarily from major banking stocks.

BRMS Sees Positive Impact from Rising Gold Prices

Also speaking at the event, Herwin Hidayat, Director of PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS), said the upward trend in gold prices could benefit companies in the sector.

“For BRMS, every increase in the gold price could enhance financial performance, especially when combined with our rising production capacity,” he explained.

The company targets a production volume of 70,000–75,000 troy ounces in 2025, compared to 64,983 troy ounces in 2024.

PHOTO: MIRAE ASSET

This article was created with AI assistance.