Global markets have shown a significant shift in safe-haven assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) now outperforming gold amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (30/03).

Recent data show Bitcoin rose by 7% to 10% since late February, while gold corrected by up to 19% from its highest level.

Institutional Flows Highlight Bitcoin Demand

This change is reflected in institutional investment flows. Gold-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded outflows of US$7.9 billion, while Bitcoin attracted inflows of more than US$1.1 billion in the first two weeks of the conflict. Rising global bond yields and higher oil prices have reduced gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Calvin Kizana, CEO of Tokocrypto, said this shift marks an evolution of Bitcoin’s role in global finance. “In times of global uncertainty, investors need assets that are not only safe but also liquid and accessible at any time. These characteristics make Bitcoin increasingly relevant compared to traditional instruments like gold,” he said in Jakarta on Monday (30/03/2026).

Short-Term Market Volatility

Bitcoin’s price movement remains influenced by both institutional demand and corporate uncertainty. Large institutions such as BlackRock continue expanding in digital assets, showing increased commitment to cryptocurrencies.

However, the market signal is more complex after Strategy, one of Bitcoin’s largest buyers, reportedly paused its routine purchases after 13 consecutive weeks. This may reduce one of the main sources of demand that previously supported prices.

“Entry by large institutions remains a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s long-term growth. However, the market is sensitive to changes in the behavior of major players. When a key buyer slows down, short-term volatility can increase,” Calvin explained.

Fundamental Support for Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains supported by its limited supply mechanism. The next halving, scheduled for April 2028, will further reduce the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market. Tokocrypto Research also noted that ETF and public company accumulation continues to rise, structurally tightening market supply.

“Historically, halving cycles have always been a bullish catalyst in the medium to long term. With steady or rising demand, supply scarcity will be a key factor driving future Bitcoin price increases,” Calvin added.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

Despite support from fundamentals, market sentiment remains under pressure. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows “Extreme Fear” at 8/100, historically a contrarian signal. This suggests short-term volatility will remain, while medium-to-long-term prospects are constructive.

In an optimistic scenario, continued institutional inflows and stable macro conditions could see Bitcoin test US$75,000 to US$80,000 in the coming months. In a conservative scenario, high interest rates and market volatility could keep Bitcoin between US$60,000 and US$65,000.

Calvin emphasized that investors should understand Bitcoin’s unique characteristics. “Bitcoin is in a transition phase, from a speculative asset to a critical part of the global financial system. Volatility will remain, but its long-term trajectory reflects significant fundamental strengthening,” he said.

PHOTO: FREEPIK

This article was created with AI assistance.

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