Retailers forecast an increase in sales for November 2025, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year (yoy), accelerating from 4.3% yoy in October (10/10).

The main contributors to the faster growth are Other Household Equipment, Cultural and Recreational Goods, Spare Parts and Accessories, and Food, Beverages, and Tobacco. These sectors are leading the overall increase in retail activity.

On a month-to-month (mtm) basis, retail sales are projected to rise by 1.1% in November, supported by most commodity groups. This follows a 0.6% mtm increase in October, driven by private demand and smooth distribution of goods ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays.

Retailers expect inflationary pressures to build over the next three months, with the Price Expectations Index (PEI) rising to 163.2 in January 2026 from 157.2. This increase is linked to higher raw material prices, wages, Value Added Tax (VAT), and seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan 1447 H. By April 2026, the PEI is expected to moderate to 161.7 as demand stabilizes following Eid-ul-Fitr.

PHOTO: BANK INDONESIA

This article was created with AI assistance.