Donald Trump's potential return to the White House raises questions about the future of Southeast Asia's energy transition. With Southeast Asia aiming to reduce carbon emissions and embrace renewable energy, a Trump presidency might influence these plans due to his historical stance on climate policy and fossil fuels.

During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and prioritized oil and coal over renewable resources. If Trump resumes similar policies, it could potentially dampen global momentum for climate action, including in Southeast Asia, which has ambitious energy goals to achieve by 2030. Countries in this region rely significantly on international cooperation for climate financing and technology transfer, especially from Western nations. A shift in U.S. climate priorities could result in reduced financial support or technical assistance, impacting projects across ASEAN countries aiming to decarbonize power generation and infrastructure.

Moreover, a Trump administration may bolster fossil fuel investments, potentially attracting capital into oil and gas developments within Southeast Asia. For instance, nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are already oil and gas producers and may receive renewed incentives to expand fossil fuel projects. This could delay renewable energy adoption as increased fossil fuel investments can lead to energy dependency on non-renewable resources, hindering the region’s shift toward cleaner energy sources.

Trade policies could also see significant changes. Trump’s previous stance favored protective measures, leading to tariff increases and trade tensions with other economies, including those in Asia. A return to this approach may strain relations with Southeast Asia, affecting access to green technology imports or imposing tariffs on components critical for renewable energy projects like solar and wind. Countries in Southeast Asia depend on affordable solar panels and wind turbines from global markets; trade disruptions could increase costs, delay project timelines, and impact the overall growth of renewable energy.

On the other hand, some countries may view a Trump presidency as a chance to enhance regional cooperation and expand partnerships with countries such as China and the European Union, both committed to green initiatives. Southeast Asian leaders could leverage these alliances to gain access to renewable energy technology, financing, and infrastructure support, diversifying partnerships to reduce dependence on the U.S. for climate action support.

Southeast Asia's energy transition hangs in a delicate balance. The region’s commitment to reducing emissions will face challenges if global climate leadership from the U.S. declines. Southeast Asia could either continue with its current trajectory, leaning on global partners like the EU and China, or slow its transition, which may affect climate targets set under regional and international frameworks.

In conclusion, Trump’s potential presidency brings uncertainties to Southeast Asia's clean energy ambitions. Balancing regional goals with shifting global alliances and navigating new trade policies will be essential as Southeast Asia pushes forward in its green transformation journey, with or without strong U.S. leadership on climate action.