Retail investors pushed shares of DXYZ and VCX sharply higher as traders increased bets on potential IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic on Thursday (22/05).

DXYZ climbed 27%, while VCX rose 18%, as investors sought exposure to private technology companies expected to go public.

Prediction Markets Expect Massive IPO Valuations

The rally accelerated after SpaceX officially filed to go public on Nasdaq earlier this week. Reports also stated that OpenAI could confidentially file for an IPO as soon as Friday.

Prediction market traders are forecasting a massive market debut for SpaceX. According to Polymarket, the highest probability currently points to a first-day valuation between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion.

Traders also assigned a 22% probability for a valuation between $2.5 trillion and $3 trillion. Another 29% probability was placed on a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.

Polymarket traders also assigned an 8% probability that SpaceX could close above a $3 trillion valuation on its first trading day.

The projected figures would represent a sharp increase from SpaceX’s most recent private valuation of $1.25 trillion earlier this year.

OpenAI and Anthropic Draw Strong IPO Expectations

Prediction markets also showed growing optimism toward OpenAI and Anthropic.

Kalshi traders currently assign a 92% probability that OpenAI will go public this year. Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI platform, carries approximately 69% odds of launching an IPO this year.

Polymarket traders are also betting on trillion-dollar valuations for both companies.

OpenAI currently holds a 65% probability of closing its first trading day above a $1.4 trillion valuation. Anthropic traders place nearly 50% odds on a debut above $1.8 trillion.

If realized, the projected valuations would place the companies alongside major technology firms such as Tesla and Meta Platforms, which currently hold market valuations of around $1.5 trillion.

DXYZ and VCX Gain Attention as Indirect IPO Bets

SpaceX currently represents the largest holding in Destiny Tech100, accounting for 16.2% of the fund’s assets.

At the end of last year, Destiny Tech100 reported net asset value growth of more than 210% from the previous year. The fund’s total portfolio fair value reached $434 million.

The portfolio later added exposure to Anthropic, CHAOS Industries and aerospace startup Hermeus. The fund also maintains exposure to Plaid through a single-asset SPV structure tied to future liquidity events.

Meanwhile, VCX has become a more AI-focused investment vehicle. Anthropic accounts for 20.7% of the portfolio, followed by OpenAI at 9.9% and SpaceX at around 5%.

AI-related investments make up nearly 44% of VCX’s overall portfolio exposure.

Deutsche Bank Questions Valuation Gap

Despite rising IPO enthusiasm, analysts at Deutsche Bank said the projected valuations appear disconnected from current business fundamentals.

The bank compared the expected valuations with Berkshire Hathaway, which generated more than $350 billion in annual revenue last year and currently holds a market value of about $1 trillion.

By comparison, SpaceX generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025, while OpenAI reportedly generated an estimated $13.1 billion.

Anthropic’s financial performance remains less transparent, although reports this week suggested the company could be nearing profitability with annualized revenue of $11 billion.

SpaceX and OpenAI also remain unprofitable despite the large projected valuations.

Deutsche Bank also noted that concerns over the market’s ability to absorb several large IPOs may be overstated. The bank stated that the U.S. stock market is now worth about $70 trillion, roughly five times larger in nominal terms than during the dot-com peak.

During the dot-com era, annual IPO activity averaged nearly 500 listings per year, compared with around 120 listings annually this decade.

Retail Traders Stay Bullish on DXYZ and VCX

Retail sentiment toward DXYZ on Stocktwits was described as “extremely bullish” with high message volume, while sentiment toward VCX remained “bearish” with low message volume.

One user wrote, “$DXYZ Every dip will be bought for 3 weeks. One more day above $51 pushes the topend to $125-$130. It’s a moving target. Raise your aim. Punch through $70.67, massive air pocket to $103.07.”

Another user wrote, “$VCX Been a great ride so far from $210. Slowly grinding higher on the 12 hr chart. Price target for me is $350, but might get a quick wick to $400.”

Over the past year, VCX has surged 2,225%, while DXYZ has gained 56%.

PHOTO: HEYGOTRADE

This article was created with AI assistance.

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